A good day to keep the powder dry

There will be a million dollars or more in the Wednesday pick-six pool at Aqueduct, where there is a rare three-day carryover. The bad news: One storm passed through the region overnight, leaving power outages in all five boroughs of the city. Another front, expected to arrive in advance of the year’s first 1 p.m. post, approaches and under the best of circumstance this is a difficult sequence of races that demands a substantial investment from anyone serious about participating in the eventual distribution of the pool.

The initial personal inclination is to pass in hopes that either (a) the track is so bad that the jockeys refuse to ride (always a possibility in New York) and the card is canceled, preserving the carryover or (b) the carryover survives another day, a less likely scenario since there will be a good deal of serious money flowing into this pool.

But disappointed first by news that the shrieking shrew remains in the presidential race, then discouraged by rain being driven by wind against the front window before dawn, we are setting aside today’s pick-six plan, an error on the side of caution, perhaps, but more likely a prudent choice.

The now-shelved plan:

Race 4: A maiden claimer for New York-breds offered for $15,000 and racing six furlong. The 8-5 morning line favorite, Ferdi’s Prince, is 0-for-11 and has failed three times at this level. No thanks. This is a group without even the hint of merit, a textbook all-button situation.

Race 5: Fillies and mares selling for $7,500 racing six furlongs and there is no speed in the field of nine. Embraceable You, the 5-2 favorite, could win this on the drop but having been crushed as the favorite in her last pair, has trap written all over her. New York Dream wheels back five days after her last start for less than half the price and since no one is going to claim this mare, the move suggests she is well meant. Double Delta is the most likely pacemaker and with this bunch chasing on a sealed, wet track, would be no surprise. Suggestion Lisa has shown little of late but fits here and must be used in self defense.

Race 6: Under ordinary circumstances, Pure Devil is the one horse on this card that we would consider a potential play. This is a horse in the right spot (before the storm) facing dismal group of $25,000 maidens at a mile and 70 yards while dropping in class by 50 percent and switching to a live rider named by an always live outfit. The single.

Race 7: A field of eight betting interests racing a mile and 70 yards, only one for sale at the optional price, $75,000, offers many possibilities – the textbook any one can win situation and another reason to not get involved. Otherwise, this would be another spot to find the all button.

Race 8: Ghost Dancing is 3-5 on the morning line in a group of fillies and mares racing six furlongs in a second-level allowance-optional $50,000 claimer. She has much going for her, breaks from the rail and will be a single on many tickets but we are inclined to include an improving What’s Your Point.

Race 9: Ten state-bred maiden $25,000 claimers will conclude the sequence with a six-furlong dash. Two are first-time starters, one Fast Wheels, from Rick Dutrow. If this colt, who shows a long if not particularly fast work history, has any ability he is in the right spot to win immediately. Of those with established form, Jets Only appears to have finally landed in the right spot.

The would-be ticket:

All
4,6,8,9
6
All
1,5
2,4

Total before scratches: $2,016