Polytrack rears its ugly head at Keeneland,
where Pyro, other contenders, are buried
It will take a while to digest the Blue Grass Stakes, won by Monba on Saturday over stablemate Cowboy Cal with 27-1 Kentucky Bear third and 68-1 Stevil fourth. In the end, it is likely to be beyond digestion.
Nowhere in the Polytrack-framed picture: Louisiana Derby winner Pyro, the Derby favorite when he left his stall or Visionaire, who won the Gotham but was no factor. Fountain of Youth winner Cool Coal Man tracked the early pace to the stretch turn before fading .Tampa Bay Derby winner Big Truck was prominent at no point. The pace was soft. The final time for nine furlong, 1:49 3/5, is probably meaningless.
This is what happens when important races are run over synthetic surfaces. The horses in the Blue Grass, and for that matter those in every race run at Keeneland on Saturday, looked like salmon swimming upstream while being kept well off the rail. Longshots have won both renewals of the Blue Grass run over Polytrack but at least the principal figure in the last, Street Sense, was upset by only a nose.
The implausible result puts Todd Pletcher in the Derby with the first two. Monba, beaten by 39 ¾ lengths in the Fountain of Youth, and Cowboy Cal, who has run primarily on turf, suddenly have sufficient graded stakes earnings from their shares of the $1-million purse to secure positions in the Derby barrier. Pletcher has moved quickly from the sidelines into the scrum but it is unlikely that the Blue Grass will serve any purpose other than having profoundly confused the issue.
But even if the Blue Grass is dismissed as a Polytrack aberration, since none of the first four past the last pole have ever won a stakes race on dirt, the question of its value as a Derby prep to those who finished far behind the winner will linger unanswered until May 3. Historically, horses coming out of poor efforts have not been successful in the Derby and there is no way that the efforts of the leading pre-race figures can be viewed as beneficial.
Comely: Sherine pulls of an upset
Sherine, one of four fillies eligible to the Kentucky Oaks going into Saturday’s Comely at Aqueduct and, at 13-1, the longest price in a field of five, is the lone survivor after a wire-to-wire upset during which she wore down Lady Chace, then opened a clear lead that was not seriously threatened on the way to a two-length decision beneath Alan Garcia. Ready for Fortune was second.
Sherine, a New York-bred by Precise End had not been particularly effective when pitted against open company in the past but was clearly the best in the Comely. She is by Precise End and may well be at the end of her tether at a mile, the Gazelle distance run in 1:37.25 with a 26.05-second final quarter, but she is the only Gazelle starter who ran well enough to merit consideration for the Oaks. Sherine faded to last. Zaftig, the betting favorite, was fourth of five behind Elusive Lady, the other Oaks prospect not likely eliminated from consideration.
Kentucky many not be in the cards for Sherine, however.
Trainer Tony Dutrow” “I was as surprised with her effort today as I was with her effort in the Dearly Precious [in which Sherine finished sixth at even money]. I thought she was training great going into the Dearly Precious and I thought she looked good coming out of it. I just kind of forgot about that race and freshened her up. She really ran a big race today. She ran fast all the way around there. I knew she was a talented filly and capable of running that way. I was just hoping she was good enough at the top of the stretch. This is a big win for me. With her speed and versatility there are a lot of options for her.”
Saturday, April 12, 2008
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4 comments:
Something has to give---the grading system or the track surface. I agree with your implication: How can the Blue Grass remain a Grade I with such bizarro results?
And yet that new study, about synthetics causing fewer breakdowns...
I'm always for the horse first. Tricky stuff.
Each time I read your posts, I am impressed by your knowledge of racing's history, your fine writing style and appreciation for the sport of thoroughbred racing.
That being said, your constant attack on anything related to racing on Polytrack smacks of plain stubbornness, inertia and/or foolishness.
I spent three days at Keeneland during the opening weekend. The days leading up to that weekend were rain filled and would have destroyed the racing cards on Opening Day and on Ashland Stakes Day. Polytrack seemingly saved those days from being scratch-
filled abominations. Given that I traveled over 700 miles from the NY metro area to attend these races, I was pleased that I witnessed full cards of racing on these days.
Handicapping the races at Keeneland now requires the racing fan to anticipate a bias towards closers. Some days that bias is stronger than others and the handicapper needs to adjust appropriately. Obviously when the same racing fan looks at a typically speed biased surface such as the Aqueduct Inner Dirt, he/she will typically handicap with a bias toward front runners and adjust accordingly based on the perceived strength of the bias.
Your rush to judgment to attack the Keeneland racing seems ridiculous. It is as if horses running on anything but "pure" dirt is heresy. How ridiculous.
Time will tell if the synthetic surfaces are ultimately the right thing for the participants as well as the fans. The failure of Santa Anita's new surface would indicate that one variety of synthetics are a failure. But condemning the racing at Keeneland because it reversed another equally strong bias seems short-sighted.
The management teams at Keeneland, Woodbine and elsewhere should be applauded for a willingness to change the status quo in an attempt to make the sport safer and better.
Will their efforts ultimately prove to be successful over the long term? We can't say. But if they didn't try, we would never know.
Only a few of the horses were running at the end of the Bluegrass. Some will say that the surface at Keeneland is a closer biased, but why do all the closers flatten out at the top of the lane? Maybe this is a provincial point of view but the racing over polytrack is completely unappealing for the longtime handicapper.
Regarding Sherine's upset: at this point I think it is safe to say that any race where the Bonds, I mean Dutrow, brothers enter and win is by no means an upset.
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