Regardless of what speed figures one applies to the handicapping process, Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes could only be better were it run on dirt rather than the Polytrack now in place at Keeneland.
The Bloodstock Research final figures for the last races run by the four central Kentucky Derby prospects in the Blue Grass, all coming off wins in races run over dirt courses:
Pyro, Louisiana Derby, 100
Visionaire, Gotham Stakes, 100
Cool Coal Man, Fountain of Youth Stakes, 100
Big Truck, Tampa Bay Derby, 99
The Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, leaving only the less than ideally positioned 1 1/16-mile Lexington Stakes next Saturday, effectively draw the curtain on the significant events preliminary to the May 3 Kentucky Derby and will be followed by three weeks of hyperbole, speculation and conjecture that invariably leads to befuddlement.
Pyro is the even-money overnight favorite but has not faced competition this formidable in two starts at the Fair Grounds and may have his feet held to the flame here. Remember, though, that the last Blue Grass, the first run over Polytrack, was won by Dominican at the expense of the eventual Derby winner, Street Sense. That’s was preps are for, even million-dollar preps and there may be a new version of Dominican in this field, too.
Evaluating prep races require a good deal of reading between the lines. To wit;
"We expect [Pyro] to run well," said David Fiske, manager of Corinthia Farm, which owns Pyro. "We just want a good effort and for Pyro to come back happy. The motto of the basketball tournament last week was to survive and advance. That's all we want." This will not inspire those who wager on Pyro at even-money or less. They expect Pyro to win.
"This is a very tough race," said Barclay Tagg, trainer of Big Truck. "It could be the Derby itself. I'm happy with my post; I'm happy with my jock, and I'm happy with my horse. He's gotten over the track very well yesterday and today. Hopefully, he'll take to it wet or dry come Saturday."
A field of 14 at Oaklawn Park is dominated by peripheral figures in pursuit of the graded stakes earnings necessary to secure one of the 20 starting positions in the Derby.
Gayego is the 5-2 morning line favorite on the strength of a second-place finish to Georgie Boy in last month's San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. In the San Felipe, Gayego finished ahead of Bob Black Jack, who came back to run a strong second to Colonel John in last Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.
The main question surrounding Gayego is his utter lack of experience racing on dirt, which prompted trainer Paulo Lobo to ship to Arkansas.
"For sure," said Lobo. "He has only been running on the synthetic track, and I would like to give him a chance to know the dirt."
Harlington resurfaces
Long absent six-year-old Harlington, who has raced only twice since winning the 2006 Gulfstream Park Handicap with Todd Pletcher at the controls, has resurfaced at Belmont Park and now resides beneath Tom Albertrani’s shedrow.
A son of two champions, Unbridled and Serena’s Song, Harlington appeared on the Belmont work tab on Thursday after several drills at owner Eugene Melnyk’s Winding Oaks Farm in Florida.
After his victory in the Gulfstream Park Handicap, Harlington finished fourth behind Invasor in the Pimlico Special, was sidelined for a year before his next start, which produced an allowance win the Belmont allowance and resulted in another long layoff.
Friday, April 11, 2008
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