Derby picture remains a muddle

The only thing made clear by three important, nine-furlong Kentucky Derby preps run on Saturday is that the prevailing muddle will remain in place until the issue is settled or on May 3.

Of the three races, the Wood Memorial was easily the most critical. In defeat, War Pass dispelled the memory of his awful performance in the Tampa Bay Derby with a race typical of his earlier efforts though he was compromised by his own suicidal pace. (Were he my horse, there would be a rider change coming soon. Actually, there would have been a rider change after the Tampa Bay race.) In victory, Tale of Ekati revealed the versatility to rate behind a fast pace – and there will most assuredly be a fast pace in this Derby – and finish strongly. He will be a dangerous horse at Churchill Downs.

Those who finished behind the first two at Aqueduct, including Court Union, are dismissed as is the entire field that made a horse race appear more like a sailing regatta at Hawthorne, where the optimistically named Recapturetheglory took a frontrunning decision. The first five – the fifth being the apparently overrated Denis of Cork -- ran in place from the half-mile call to the wire at Hawthorne. The winner, owned by Louie Roussel and Ronnie Lamarque of Risen Star fame, represents yet another speed element in a Derby field that could—and is likely to include -- both Big Brown and War Pass, which raises the distinct possibility of a dizzying pace for the first six furlongs at Churchill Downs.

The Santa Anita Derby, run over a synthetic course and therefore of little use in evaluating the convincing winner, Colonel John, was truly a mess. The first three horses past the quarter pole were all under drives at that point and one, Bob Black Jack, stayed on to finish second and was not badly beaten by the only horse moving with any degree of authority at the end of nine furlongs.

Though the competition he faced at Santa Anita was highly suspect and generally staggering to the wire, Colonel John may be a legitimate threat in the Derby and will be willingly backed. But until he shows the capacity to translate synthetic track form to a dirt course, his place among the contenders is no more than a matter of conjecture.

The weekend’s racing was useful in the process of culling the herd. Horses do not win the Derby coming off bad races in their final preps. Tale of Ekati is most certainly a contender. Colonel John will go to Kentucky accompanied by many unanswered question and in need of at least one sharp work over the course at Churchill Downs. While War Pass and Recapturetheglory may face a daunting tactical disadvantage in Louisville, their efforts on Saturday are difficult to fault. But Court Vision, Denis of Cork and El Gato Malo are not likely to threaten in Kentucky.

Kentucky Derby betting

This week’s ranking

Note: The reestablishment of War Pass and the likelihood that Recapturetheglory will contribute another speed element in the Derby makes it necessary to downgrade Big Brown’s chances, though it appears quite possible that the mercurial if inexperienced, sore-footed monster will be the betting favorite.

Pyro
Tale of Ekati
Visionaire
Big Truck
Cool Coal Man
Big Brown
War Pass
Colonel John