Keeneland betting handle in decline

Though evidence is entirely anecdotal, the negative effect of racing on Polytrack is becoming evident at the bottom line as frustrated bettors opt for alternative opportunities. Handle is down by 17 percent compared to figures from the first half of last year’s spring meeting.

The Daily Racing Form reports that all-sources handle was averaging $10,348,979 through Sunday at Keeneland, off substantially from the $12,469,609 that was averaged through the corresponding period at the 2007 spring meet, when only seven days were run (one Sunday was dark last year because it was Easter).

On-track attendance has averaged 14,597, up 4 percent over last spring, but the average ontrack handle (which includes simulcast imports) of $1,671,327 is well off the nearly $1.9 million that was averaged during the same time frame last spring.

The comparison between this and last year’s spring meeting, officials note, may be skewed by record figures set in 2007 that would be difficult to match under any circumstance. But the boutique meetings at the landmark track in Lexington have produced an inscrutable racing product that has been erosive and manifests itself slowly as horseplayers opt to pass on races run over Polytrack.

It is becoming evident that the best way to wager on races run over synthetic surfaces is with counterfeit money.

International update: Bullish in Hong Kong

From the Hong Kong Jockey Club

Three times champion German trainer Peter Schiergen does not mince his words when asked why he is sending Quijano to Hong Kong for the Audemars Piguet QEII Cup because it has something to do with Viva Pataca.

"That's why we're coming," he enthuses in response to the direct question of whether his horse can reverse the narrow margin - less than a length - that the Hong Kong star finished ahead of Quijano in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Nad Al Sheba, just 29 days before next weekend's HK$14-million Sha Tin spectacular.

But, Schiergen still sounds rather frustrated by the Dubai race, the joint second richest race in the world, just describing it as “okay” no doubt reflecting on what might have been had Quijano not been shuffled back several times in the early charge.

"With a better run, I'm sure we could have finished second," though he is quick to add: "but that is what can happen in racing."

In fact Quijano is a horse that has enjoyed his fair share of good fortune. With all the talent in the world he must also have had a few lucky breaks to win his races - but things seems to have conspired against lately, not just in Dubai but also at Sha Tin last December. That was his all too late surge into second behind Doctor Dino in the Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Vase after which jockey Andrasch Starke reflected ruefully: "We were checked three times. Otherwise we would have won."

When it comes to previewing the 2008 Audemars Piguet QEII Cup, one can be sure that many tipsters will focus on Sha Tin's 2000m distance, casting their critical faculties over the winning chance of Quijano whose pedigree appears to scream 2400m stamina ahead of 2000m speed.

In fact his CV includes just two races over as short as the Audemars Piguet QEII Cup distance of 2000m, firstly when conquering weak rivals in a humble Baden Baden handicap and then when running the only stinker of his 19-race career, at Vichy in France.

However these hypothetical arguments do not appear to be giving Schiergen sleepless nights right now. "If you look closely, he has been running too freely early in his races. Going a bit quicker over the Sha Tin 2000m should help him to settle. Plus he has terrific speed from the gates."

Then there is the issue of whether a six-year-old gelding, winner of the Germany's most prestigious race, the Grosser Preis Von Baden last September, can possibly be improving?

Quite possibly yes according to his trainer, who, voices quite a strong opinion on the subject: "Remember, early problems meant this horse started his career very late, first proving himself as a four-year-old gelding. It is very possible that we have not seen the best yet."

Invited to make a comparison with stars such as Boreal and Tiger Hill, champions that have pushed the stable's Group One tally well into double figures, Schiergen, who also rode nearly 1500 winners, says: "He's up with the best of them. He's a complete Group One horse."

As such, the omens seem positive that Quijano, who carries the same yellow and black colors worn by Silvano to victory in this race in 2001 for owners Stiftung Gestt Fährhof, may not be the only German Horse of the Year to triumph in the Audemars Piguet QEII Cup this decade.