Raining on the parade

With a weather front approaching New York, the racetrack at Aqueduct was sealed tight and rolled after the last race on Thursday. The combination of rain and heavy equipment will do nothing to rectify the pronounced inside speed bias that has prevailed during the first two days of racing on the main track, once but no longer a surface prized for its kindness and consistency.

Weather conditions and maintenance protocols notwithstanding, there is a guaranteed-pool pick-four offered that embraces the stakes on the 11-race Aqueduct program. A wet track will play to War Pass, strength established in the Breeders’ Cup and can only help Bustin Stones, who goes for his sixth win without defeat in the Carter, which has drawn a modest field for a Grade 1 race. Spring At Last, winner of the Donn Handicap in his last appearance may be favored in the Carter on sheer reputation and the fact that he is trained by the always dangerous Doug O’Neill. He has, however, raced only twice in the last year, has never run over a wet track is quite vulnerable here.

Magna Graduate will be well supported in the Excelsior Handicap but has not been flattered by wet ground in the past and failed to distinguish himself in two races in New Orleans over the winter. Todd Pletcher’s less-heralded representative, Nite Lite, brings a four-race winning streak to the table and shows four works since his last in mid February and presents a far more attractive wagering proposition in a race more contentious than it appears at first glance. Wafi City has also returned to competition this winter in much better form than he showed at age three and fits well here.

Bay Shore Stakes, Grade 3, 7 furlongs

Gattopardo
Go Go Shoot
J Be K

Excelsior Handicap, Grade 3, 9 furlongs

Nite Light
Wafi City
Angliana
Temporary Saint

Wood Memorial, Grade 1, 9 furlongs

War Pass
Texas Wildcatter
Court Vision
Roman Emperor

Carter Handicap, Grade 1, 7 furlongs

Bustin Stones
Executive Fleet
Ryan’s for Real
Spring at Last
Lord Snowdon


What you see may not be what you get

Saturday is a less important a day in regard to the Kentucky Derby than racing’s promoters would have you believe, since the Santa Anita Derby is no longer is legitimate prep. The Illinois Derby, at least, will be run on dirt at Hawthorne, with Denis of Cork the principal figure in the day’s race likely to receive the least attention.

While there is a good deal to be learned from the Wood Memorial vis a vis the status of War Pass, who tasted defeat for the first time in the Tampa Bay Derby last month and seeks to remove the tarnish, the Santa Anita Derby, which pits Colonel John and El Gato Malo, will reveal nothing because it will be run over a synthetic surface. It is always preferable to prep for a dirt race on dirt.

This also calls into question the relevance of the Blue Grass Stakes next weekend at Keeneland, where Polytrack is the science project underfoot. That meeting, once an ATM for pace handicappers who loved the former, biased dirt surface, opened on Friday.

Most of the three-year-olds making their final start before the Derby at Keeneland, notably Pyro, Cool Coal Man and Visionaire, have established dirt form – not the case for those who have raced only on synthetic surfaces in California.