What now?

On Saturday morning, Pyro was the consensus favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, Visionaire was a contender moving forward toward May 3, Cool Coal Man appeared to be trainer Nick Zito’s most dangerous weapon and Big Truck was the other promising three-year-old Derby prospect in Barclay Tagg’s barn.

After the Blue Grass Stakes run over Polytrack at Keeneland, in which Visionaire finished fifth, 6 ¼ lengths behind Monba, with Cool Coal Man, Pyro and Big Truck ninth, tenth and eleventh beaten by 10 ¾, 11 ½ and 11 ¾ lengths respectively, they share a glaring lack of one of the essential qualifications of a potential Kentucky Derby winner – a good race at nine furlongs in the final prep.

Only Visionaire, last of 12 early, managed to close any ground in the Blue Grass. Cool Coal Man, who tracked a soft pace to the stretch turn, backed up. Pyro and Big Truck may as well have had their final Derby prep on a treadmill. Gayego, meanwhile, wisely sent from California to Arkansas to answer the question of the translation of form from a synthetic to dirt surface, answered in the affirmative with a very solid effort in the Arkansas Derby. Z Fortune’s unsuccessful late bid-hung effort at Oaklawn suggests that nine furlongs may have been beyond his range but at least that race served its purpose.

So, either Monba, who is without a stakes win on dirt, was underrated or he is this year’s Dominican. The latter is likely the correct answer. And if Pyro, Visionaire, Cool Coal Man or Big Truck makes an impact in Louisville, it will be the result of an extraordinary training effort since none is likely to have benefitted from the experience in Lexington.

It will be interesting to see the various rankings of this week. The only certainty is that Big Brown‘s position was strengthened by his absence from the Blue Grass. Here’s one:

Big Brown
Tale of Ekati
Gayego
War Pass
Z Fortune
Recapturetheglory
Colonel John
Smooth Air
Tomcito
Pyro

Kentucky Derby betting